[Update:] 8:12pm NZDST. With the polls closed for just over an hour and 6% of the vote counted New Zealand First is sitting on 4.6%, just short of passing the threshold to enter parliament - this may well be more interesting than I first assumed.
There is a certain sense of hopelessness descending upon me. I am politically disenfranchised. I am democracy deficient. I have been away from New Zealand too long to be eligible to vote in tomorrow's general election.
And for the first time since I have been old enough to cast a ballot I can't help but feel my vote might have actually counted.
Let me set the scene: New Zealand has been governed by a minority coalition government lead by The New Zealand Labour Party and Prime Minister Helen Clark, with support on confidence and supply issues by three other parties for the last nine years. (Or three electoral terms). It goes into tomorrow's election having lost one of those confidence and supply partners and poll results that say the centre left parties would be out numbered by those on the centre right.
The latest New Zealand Herald poll showed the situation thus:
The vaguries of the Mixed Member Proportional electoral system, and the probability of The Maori Party winning 5 of the 7 Maori seats (meaning they will have more seats than their share of the overall party vote, as will The Progressive Party) will lead to an "overhang" of three seats, bringing the total number of representatives to 123 up from 120 and the majority up to 62 seats.
As illustrated above this would mean National will only require the assistance of one of the right wing parties in the Parliament and in a best case scenario would have 64 votes in the house against The Left's 59 (If indeed The Maori party stays in the cross benches).
However many pundits have been right to point out that the polls were looking very similar three years ago and the Labour party managed to form a government.
Since I don't really have a say in the matter, and since the installation of a centre right government at home will keep me away for at least another 3 years I offer up a couple of possibilities for what might occur tomorrow:
1) National led Centre-Right coalition involving ACT party and possibly United Future.
Pretty much as the poll above has it. However I doubt it would last the whole term. The Act party will return it's leader Rodney Hide to parliament along with the party's new #2 Rt. Hon. Sir Roger Douglas who, to put it mildly, is probably the most polarizing figure in New Zealand Politics since Sir Rob Muldoon. Hell they even coined the phrase Rogernomics for him. In his perfect world Douglas would sell every state asset for breakfast, introduce a flat tax at lunch and finally wholesale devolution of government by tea. If the National leader John Key is required to let Douglas in to the cabinet room to secure Act's support he's in for a bumpy ride.
2) National led Centre-Right minority government coalition and / or partnership involving The Maori Party
Probably the most likely outcome given that on the actual day Labour and / or the Left will probably gain one or even two seats. I think you will see The Maoris enter into a confidence and supply deal and have one of their number named Maori Affairs Minister outside of cabinet (allowing them to still quietly criticize the government on other policies, but maintaining collective responsibility on their particular item of interest - see the current administration where the Foreign Affairs minister was outside of cabinet)
3) Winston Peters wins Tauranga / NZ First get over 5%
Not likely, but could still happen. This would throw the poll above into all sort of whack and might see a Centre-Left minority Labour Government return for a historic 4th term. Especially seeing as National ruled out long ago dealing with the "corrupt" Peters who, it turns out, has been cleared of any wrongdoing by the cops, serious fraud office and the electoral commission much to his delight and the chagrin of the likes of John Key and National.
As much as I would like to see it happen I doubt it will.
The stronger support of the third parties in this upcoming election is, I think, a mark of the maturity of the MMP electoral system. But I wonder too if its a repudiation of the two main parties (who, in all honesty, are so centrist as to be two sides of the same coin). In the same vein of thought I wonder if National's support stems from a want of change rather than any real dissatisfaction with the Labour administration which up until the last 6 weeks have been responsible stewards of the nation's economy, have spent taxpayer's money reasonably successfully and has seen both record economic growth and record low unemployment - Gains I can't help but think will be squandered by the (albeit centrist) right wing.
Oh yes, there's "Change" happening all right!