What's Next For Pyongyang?

While the passing of The Dear Leader Comrade General Kim Jong Il has commanded headlines the last week, news and analysis is now turning to wat is going to happen next - especially with The Great Successor, Supreme General Kim Jong Un seemingly eager to cement his place at the the top of the North Korean Elite. He seems to be doing a bang up job with three different visits to his father, laying in state, with three different groups of people accompanying him. 

(via northkoreanleadershipwatch.com)

Apparently the Propaganda machine is well oiled with Kim Jong Un being described as "Born of Mt. Paektu" - referring to the mountain that is sacred to all Koreans, North and South, and as the KCNA reports:

the North said in a dispatch that the people and the military "have pledged to uphold the leadership of comrade Kim Jong Un" and called him a "great successor" of the country's revolutionary philosophy of juche, or self reliance.

Young Koreans, the North reported, "are burning with the faith and will to remain loyal to Kim Jong Un."

"Under the leadership of Kim Jong Un, we youths will creditably take over the baton of revolution and successfully accomplish the revolutionary cause of juche pioneered by President Kim Il Sung and led to victory by Kim Jong Il," Kan Ok Ryon, 26, was quoted by the Korean Central News Agency as saying.

Time

And so it seems the young lad might be OK for now.

One theory that has been circulating though sees less power concentrated in the "Great Successor" and more in a ruling cabal centred around him. If the Official State Funeral Committee list is to be believed there is a hard core cadre of Party Stalwarts right at the top that, while keeping the baby Kim as figurehead (was Kushibo right?) - probably now has more say in the way things are run, than ever before.

The Korea Economic Institute has a list of 10 people to watch in the transition of power in North Korea. Among them, Kim Jong Il's Brother-in-Law, Jang Song Taek has, and will no doubt continue to play a dominant role in mentoring the young Kim.

Jang is now back as a Vice-Chairman of the National Defense Commission and an alternate member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee. Jang was recently seensigning an agreement over power at the Rason special economic zone with China’s Commerce Minister Chen Deming. Jang is apparently involved in large scale economic projects for North Korea. He is also the Director of the Korean Workers Party Administrative Department, giving him oversight over internal security offices. Lastly, he is thought to be helping groom Kim Jong-un by providing him information as well as some political protection from any possible threats.

Korea Economic Institute

Another possible figure mentoring Kim Jong Un is his Aunt, Kim Kyong Hui , Kim Jong Il's sister and the last surviving (?) off spring of Kim Il Sung. Married to Jang, Kim Kyong Hui was made a 4 Star general the same time as her nephew Kim Jong Un, earlier this year. My 3rd pick for who's really behind the throne (at least until Jong Un makes his bones) is Kim Yong Nam - listed 2nd on the Funeral Committee list Kim Yong Nam has a huge amount of foreign policy experience and is currently the current president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly in North Korea, or leader of the North's "rubber stamp" legislature.

L-R Jang Song Taek , Kim Kyong Hui and Kim Yong Nam.

Either way - whether Kim Jong Un sets about consolidating power in himself, or whether the ruling elite comes to the fore, it is also useful not to forget the hand of China in all of this. This year saw the elder Kim visit China at least twice and it is well known that China both wants North Korea to open up more economically like its self but more importantly like North Korea as a buffer between it and 30,000 United States troops.

The last big question tht remains unanswered is what Jong Un will do with the almost $4 Billion dollars accumulated by Kim Jong Il and supposedly passed on to the Kim the Younger. Speculation began in March with the return of Li Su Yong, head of the North Korean Joint Venture Committee, to Pyongyang from Switzerland. Said to have been Kim Jong Un's patron while he was in Switzerland studying, Li is most likely te one responsible for Kim Jong Il's murky banking transactions. It is suspected that Kim Jong Un will continue to build his funds through the sales of weapons, drugs and counterfeit cigarettes orchestrated by Korean Worker's Party organs known as Room 38 and Room 39 and reportedly being headed by Li. $4 Billion would go a long way to staving off the hunger and poverty of the people of North Korea - it would also go a long way to consolidating a power base amongst the Pyongyang elite.